Forex News

Obama to Tell US Multinationals to Close Short USD Bets

Published on Tue, 02/12/2013 - 11:38am

Obama to Tell US Multinationals to Close Short Dollar Bets

By: Scott Nourse, President FX Renew

After just showing signs of a broad dollar rally underway yesterday, FX is selling USD across the board today for no apparent reason.  We believe this relates to our 2013 prediction that a US tax holiday on repatriated overseas profits is coming; perhaps as early as tonight’s State of the Union address.  Here’s our prediction in December:

Fed continues buying bonds

Published on Wed, 12/12/2012 - 1:29pm

The Fed announced a new plan today, saying it would continue buying bonds until unemployment falls below 6.5%. In other words, we will have ZIRP for a long time to come. The irony in the market's reaction is that the QE announcement already suggested almost the exact same thing. So, what has really changed? The answer is very little. The Fed did not say it would buy another $1T in bonds next month, it simply reiterated the economy is in serious trouble and printing money is their only answer.

Weak USD?

Published on Tue, 11/20/2012 - 9:30am

The weak dollar tone that ended last week and was prevalent yesterday has begun to fade yet again. EUR/USD is running into a cluster of moving averages just above 1.2800, including the 20- and 200-day SMAs, and 34- and 55-day EMAs. The pair completed a 5-wave downward move early last week, as seen on the 4H chart, and 1.2880 is the top of the wave 4 correction where it may be expected to test. However, the erratic price behavior makes it tough to call here. USD/JPY is pushing higher even after the BOJ decided not to further easing in its meeting that ended early today.

Price action ramping up

Published on Fri, 11/16/2012 - 11:05am

Price action is very intense right now, following a nice jump in USD. It's hard to tell if what we see currently is merely high-frequency games trying to spook traders or if there is truly a great deal of hesitation in taking the dollar higher from here. We were able to jump on EUR shorts just before it broke lower and believe the pair will experience a much more significant sell off today. We noted GBP looking vulnerable earlier, but it has since fallen quite a distance from our target entry area. The wildcard for the rest of the day is the discussion in Washington about the fiscal cliff.

U.S. session ends weak

Published on Wed, 11/14/2012 - 4:29pm

As the US session comes to a close, stocks are adding to losses. S&P is down more than 20 points and the Dow is off more than 200. Commodity currencies should have a very tough Asian session ahead as dollar moves higher in the broad market. The yen is losing ground despite the risk aversion as Japan is likely to see a political shuffle with a new party favoring even greater stimulus (money printing).

Hurricane Sandy shuts down U.S. stock market

Published on Mon, 10/29/2012 - 11:07am

Dangerous weather in North East US states, including NY, have forced various markets to close. All NYSE trading, including electronic, is closed for the entire day. Stock futures have also closed as of 9:15AM to avoid any manipulation that may occur with so many trading desks at major market firms closed. Forex could be affected due to unmanned trading desks, but the electronic nature of the market means there is still plenty of access for other players.

Why US Investors Must Diversify Out of Stocks

Published on Tue, 10/23/2012 - 10:29am

 

By: Scott Nourse, CEO & Chief Investment Officer

 

Alternative assets like commodities, futures and currencies have long been seen by the investing public as an invitation-only club for billionaire investors.  Moreover, most investors saw little reason to stray from traditional investments such as stocks, bonds and mutual funds.  For decades we have watched stocks and bonds perform wonderfully.  More recently, however, things have taken a dramatic turn in the world of investing.

Good ISM data

Published on Wed, 10/03/2012 - 10:19am

The dollar seems unstoppable, but price action still feels very strange this week and it's tough to trust it will continue higher. US data was better than expected, but this could be seen as dollar positive; something we haven't really seen in the last 10 years. GBP/USD is trying to work its way back through the weekly down trendline it broke through three weeks ago and has been testing the backside of this TL very aggressively. AUD/USD is also testing key support at 1.02 where the 100-day SMA lies.

Our Kiwi trade is up for now

Published on Wed, 10/03/2012 - 8:34am

Our NZD buy limit was hit at 0.8205, near today's low. Thus far it has been a positive trade. On the whole the majors are still bouncing around aimlessly. If this is not the new normal, we suspect the market is building up for something substantial. Whether that is USD positive or negative remains a mystery. The US Dollar Index has been gaining over the last two weeks and is now using its 20-day SMA as support around 79.70. Of course, this has a lot more to do with EUR weakness than the broad market.

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